Fri, Dec 21, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Ottawa Senators 2, New Jersey Devils 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 07 | 214 | 06 | 227 |
| NJD | 211 | 314 | 07 | 532 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:03NJDPavel ZachaSHAssists: Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P1 10:54NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Taylor Hall, Nico Hischier · Snap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P2 2:20OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Mark Stone, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:07NJDTaylor HallPPGWGAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 5:19NJDTaylor HallAssists: Kyle Palmieri · Snap, 0.13 xG1–4
- P2 11:53OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Bobby Ryan, Christian Jaros · Snap, 0.16 xG2–4
- P2 18:58NJDNico HischierAssists: Taylor Hall, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.15 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:59NJDMiles Wood: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 18:34OTTRyan Dzingel: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:52NJDMiles Wood: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:56OTTBen Harpur: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 11:58OTTZack Smith: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:58NJDBrett Seney: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:21NJDBrett Seney: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:47NJDJohn Quenneville: Holding2 min
- P3 7:54NJDKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:53NJDMiles Wood: Misconduct10 min
- P3 13:53OTTMark Borowiecki: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:36OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Hischier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestDuchene – Stone – Tkachuk4:52
xG 0.36–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Smith – Boedker – Tierney2:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Boedker – Duchene – Tierney4:25
xG 0.08–0.16 (34%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Dzingel – White3:42
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Jaros5:26
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- DeMelo – Chabot6:13
xG 0.32–0.23 (59%)attempts 8–3goals 0–1
- Ceci – Lajoie2:53
xG 0.09–0.12 (43%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Hall – Hischier11:08
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 9–9goals 3–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood8:15
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Seney4:23
xG 0.14–0.08 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Quenneville – Zacha – Bratt7:24
xG 0.12–0.23 (35%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Santini11:35
xG 0.73–0.47 (61%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher12:39
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson13:08
xG 0.39–0.41 (48%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).