Sat, Dec 22, 2018·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Columbus Blue Jackets 4, Philadelphia Flyers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CBJ | 15 | 310 | 04 | 419 |
| PHI | 17 | 115 | 115 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:05CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 19:37PHISean CouturierPPAssists: Claude Giroux · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 7:40PHIPhil VaroneAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Dale Weise · Wrist, 0.34 xG1–2
- P2 9:30CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Ryan Murray, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 13:23CBJCam AtkinsonAssists: Scott Harrington, Artemi Panarin · Snap, 0.20 xG3–2
- P2 19:24CBJArtemi PanarinGWGAssists: Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.09 xG4–2
- P3 18:50PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Jakub Voracek, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.30 xG4–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 12:06PHIRadko Gudas: Interference2 min
- P1 12:06PHIRadko Gudas: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:06CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Instigator2 min
- P1 12:06CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:06CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Misconduct10 min
- P1 17:40CBJRyan Murray: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:00PHISean Couturier: Interference2 min
- P2 17:20CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:03PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:41CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Tripping2 min
- P3 15:55CBJBrandon Dubinsky: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dubois won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois12:41
xG 0.88–0.22 (80%)attempts 12–7goals 4–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Hannikainen4:24
xG 0.26–0.05 (84%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jenner – Anderson – Bjorkstrand9:25
xG 0.05–0.22 (17%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Foligno – Duclair – Wennberg10:45
xG 0.12–1.11 (10%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Harrington11:06
xG 0.61–0.15 (80%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Murray – Nutivaara16:39
xG 0.35–0.86 (29%)attempts 6–17goals 1–1
- Jones – Werenski13:31
xG 0.21–0.96 (18%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestLaughton – Raffl – Patrick10:52
xG 1.14–0.17 (87%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Weise – Varone – Lindblom5:30
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny11:00
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Couturier13:48
xG 0.24–0.74 (25%)attempts 8–10goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Hagg10:39
xG 1.38–0.07 (95%)attempts 12–2goals 1–0
- Gostisbehere – Provorov2:54
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov14:21
xG 0.24–0.41 (37%)attempts 11–9goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CBJ), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).