Sat, Dec 22, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 2, Detroit Red Wings 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 29 | 07 | 07 | 223 |
| DET | 010 | 18 | 016 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:09FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 17:21FLAEvgenii DadonovGWGAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 10:00DETThomas VanekAssists: Dylan Larkin, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:00DETDennis Cholowski: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 9:40FLAMicheal Haley: Charging2 min
- P1 9:40DETNiklas Kronwall: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:08FLAJared McCann: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:34FLAAleksander Barkov: Holding2 min
- P3 1:42FLAFrank Vatrano: Holding2 min
- P3 9:02DETNick Jensen: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 11:28FLATroy Brouwer: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00de la Rose won the faceoff against Sceviour
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:43
xG 0.45–0.14 (77%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Haley – Hawryluk4:46
xG 0.11–0.12 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Brouwer – McCann – Malgin9:39
xG 0.31–0.39 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Borgstrom11:07
xG 0.21–0.67 (24%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestYandle – Ekblad15:08
xG 0.70–0.21 (77%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Matheson – Weegar15:25
xG 0.50–0.91 (35%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
- Pysyk – Kiselevich13:38
xG 0.06–0.65 (8%)attempts 6–16goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin11:03
xG 0.69–0.40 (63%)attempts 17–5goals 0–1
- de la Rose – Ehn – Rasmussen6:32
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Glendening – Bertuzzi8:40
xG 0.11–0.14 (43%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Vanek – Megan – Frk2:27
xG 0.01–0.18 (3%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Jensen12:44
xG 1.07–0.39 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Hronek5:38
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Daley – Hronek2:21
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).