Sat, Dec 22, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
St. Louis Blues 3, Calgary Flames 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 212 | 05 | 110 | 327 |
| CGY | 19 | 013 | 07 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:06STLDavid PerronAssists: Jay Bouwmeester · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 11:43STLTyler BozakPPGWGAssists: Patrick Maroon, David Perron · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–0
- P1 16:49CGYMatthew TkachukPPAssists: Elias Lindholm, Johnny Gaudreau · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P3 1:56STLOskar SundqvistAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Vince Dunn · Slap, 0.18 xG3–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:06CGYSam Bennett: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:42STLPatrick Maroon: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 19:00STLDavid Perron: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:51STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:09CGYSean Monahan: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:01STLRobert Bortuzzo: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Schenn won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Maroon – Bozak – Thomas6:58
xG 0.14–0.13 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Steen – Perron – O'Reilly12:18
xG 0.32–0.41 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Nolan – Sundqvist – Barbashev7:06
xG 0.54–0.64 (46%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz10:42
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestButler – Dunn6:56
xG 0.43–0.15 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko18:00
xG 0.30–0.46 (39%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo17:15
xG 0.32–0.87 (27%)attempts 8–16goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestFrolik – Jankowski – Bennett6:34
xG 0.41–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan12:53
xG 0.77–0.58 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 0–2
- Neal – Backlund – Tkachuk9:12
xG 0.35–0.25 (59%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Neal – Frolik – Jankowski2:45
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin18:20
xG 0.80–0.37 (68%)attempts 18–6goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:38
xG 0.65–0.33 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Andersson – Kylington7:38
xG 0.32–0.38 (46%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).