Sat, Dec 22, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Montréal Canadiens 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 117 | 114 | 115 | 11 | 447 |
| VGK | 19 | 212 | 04 | 01 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:40MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Tomas Tatar · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P1 16:24VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Alex Tuch, William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.20 xG1–1
- P2 4:52VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Brayden McNabb, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P2 8:10MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Jordie Benn, Brendan Gallagher · Tip-in, 0.01 xG2–2
- P2 13:59VGKBrandon PirriAssists: Brayden McNabb · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–3
- P3 18:35MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Max Domi, Tomas Tatar · Tip-in, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 1:59MTLPaul ByronGWGAssists: Max Domi, Victor Mete · Backhand, 0.17 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:10VGKBrayden McNabb: Interference2 min
- P2 17:29MTLShea Weber: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:25VGKPaul Stastny: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:49MTLJeff Petry: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:35
xG 0.70–0.03 (96%)attempts 17–3goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino7:16
xG 0.60–0.08 (88%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Byron – Drouin – Domi11:15
xG 1.14–0.83 (58%)attempts 21–16goals 0–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault11:30
xG 0.64–1.29 (33%)attempts 17–19goals 2–2
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly14:11
xG 1.07–0.46 (70%)attempts 21–13goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete16:55
xG 1.10–0.97 (53%)attempts 20–19goals 1–0
- Benn – Kulak11:39
xG 0.40–0.36 (52%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- Stastny – Smith – Pirri11:38
xG 0.30–0.56 (35%)attempts 14–17goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Marchessault – Tuch11:59
xG 0.93–1.20 (44%)attempts 16–24goals 1–1
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek9:57
xG 0.18–0.69 (21%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare8:20
xG 0.09–0.63 (12%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt16:31
xG 1.66–1.38 (55%)attempts 24–29goals 3–1
- Engelland – Theodore18:13
xG 0.84–1.15 (42%)attempts 20–24goals 0–0
- Holden – Hunt11:18
xG 0.05–0.65 (8%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).