Sat, Dec 22, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Anaheim Ducks 0, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 015 | 010 | 015 | 040 |
| BUF | 115 | 015 | 23 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:51BUFRasmus DahlinPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Jack Eichel · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P3 11:12BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Sam Reinhart, Lawrence Pilut · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–2
- P3 18:02BUFConor ShearyENAssists: Jack Eichel, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.71 xG0–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:56ANAPontus Aberg: Holding2 min
- P1 15:07ANACarter Rowney: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00ANANick Ritchie: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:14ANAAndrew Cogliano: Interference2 min
- P2 0:00ANAJake Dotchin: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00ANAJake Dotchin: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00BUFZach Bogosian: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:57BUFVladimir Sobotka: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:32BUFJeff Skinner: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larsson won the faceoff against Kesler
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestGetzlaf – Aberg – Kase5:47
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Sprong2:42
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Gibbons – Rowney – Sherwood6:56
xG 0.20–0.06 (78%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Ritchie – Kase7:10
xG 0.34–0.30 (53%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDotchin – Mahura6:08
xG 0.40–0.15 (73%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Manson – Larsson11:58
xG 0.41–0.20 (67%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Manson – Mahura3:12
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Girgensons – Thompson7:49
xG 0.46–0.23 (67%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Elie – Mittelstadt8:19
xG 0.43–0.32 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Eichel12:44
xG 0.47–0.61 (44%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
- Sobotka – Sheary – Rodrigues9:45
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRistolainen – Pilut10:38
xG 0.72–0.51 (59%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Scandella12:24
xG 0.57–0.49 (54%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- McCabe – Dahlin11:39
xG 0.27–0.23 (54%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).