Sat, Dec 22, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
New York Rangers 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 110 | 28 | 328 |
| TOR | 115 | 010 | 411 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:58TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 15:00NYRNeal PionkAssists: Jimmy Vesey, Brady Skjei · Slap, 0.01 xG1–1
- P3 1:37TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Mitch Marner, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
- P3 5:26TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Andreas Johnsson, Frederik Gauthier · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 6:34NYRKevin HayesAssists: Filip Chytil, Neal Pionk · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–3
- P3 12:53TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: John Tavares, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 16:19NYRChris KreiderAssists: Kevin Hayes, Marc Staal · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–4
- P3 19:40TORMitch MarnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG3–5
Penalties (4)
- P2 1:10TORPatrick Marleau: Holding2 min
- P2 6:10NYRAdam McQuaid: Holding2 min
- P2 6:10NYRAdam McQuaid: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:33TORJohn Tavares: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestStrome – Nieves – Andersson7:21
xG 0.31–0.15 (67%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Kreider – Hayes – Buchnevich9:16
xG 0.32–0.32 (50%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Zuccarello – Zibanejad – Chytil9:35
xG 0.22–0.68 (24%)attempts 9–12goals 0–2
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Howden10:32
xG 0.37–1.20 (23%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Pionk16:47
xG 0.58–0.77 (43%)attempts 15–17goals 1–0
- McQuaid – Skjei14:09
xG 0.30–0.55 (35%)attempts 11–18goals 0–3
- Smith – Claesson12:12
xG 0.18–1.27 (12%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Johnsson – Marner12:10
xG 0.99–0.16 (86%)attempts 20–11goals 3–0
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander9:31
xG 0.79–0.28 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews10:35
xG 0.52–0.44 (54%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Ennis – Gauthier – Lindholm2:37
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev18:17
xG 1.08–0.47 (70%)attempts 18–22goals 1–0
- Marincin – Dermott11:46
xG 0.28–0.32 (46%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Hainsey – Rielly15:23
xG 0.35–0.82 (30%)attempts 13–18goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).