Sat, Dec 22, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Pittsburgh Penguins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 18 | 28 | 016 | 332 |
| CAR | 011 | 08 | 020 | 039 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:41PITKris LetangGWGAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P2 3:00PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Bryan Rust · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 19:09PITJake GuentzelAssists: Sidney Crosby, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.21 xG3–0
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:13PITJuuso Riikola: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 10:44PITDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:20CARJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:03PITRiley Sheahan: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 8:16PITMarcus Pettersson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:21CARLucas Wallmark: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel14:09
xG 1.20–1.15 (51%)attempts 22–17goals 2–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Pearson8:54
xG 0.39–0.59 (40%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
- Cullen – Sheahan – Aston-Reese8:34
xG 0.11–0.47 (19%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Simon11:38
xG 0.38–0.75 (34%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Letang – Dumoulin16:36
xG 1.13–1.14 (50%)attempts 23–25goals 1–0
- Maatta – Riikola15:12
xG 0.85–1.05 (45%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Johnson – Pettersson13:07
xG 0.23–0.80 (23%)attempts 11–18goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Martinook – Svechnikov8:06
xG 1.17–0.68 (63%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Williams – Foegele – Wallmark7:18
xG 0.43–0.13 (77%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Martinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov3:38
xG 0.26–0.01 (96%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Ferland – Teravainen – Aho10:00
xG 0.41–0.38 (52%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce15:57
xG 1.67–0.77 (68%)attempts 19–15goals 0–1
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk14:10
xG 0.90–0.50 (64%)attempts 26–11goals 0–0
- de Haan – Faulk13:48
xG 0.70–0.98 (42%)attempts 16–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).