Sat, Dec 22, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Dallas Stars 2, Minnesota Wild 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 08 | 08 | 19 | 12 | 227 |
| MIN | 09 | 08 | 113 | 01 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 1:58DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–0
- P3 17:57MINJason ZuckerAssists: Mikael Granlund, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.31 xG1–1
- OT 4:50DALAlexander RadulovGWGAssists: John Klingberg, Mattias Janmark · Snap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:54DALJamie Benn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 14:12MINNick Seeler: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:26MINLuke Kunin: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:28MINZach Parise: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:31MINLuke Kunin: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:31DALRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:31DALRoman Polak: Instigator2 min
- P2 12:31DALRoman Polak: Fighting5 min
- P2 12:31DALRoman Polak: Misconduct10 min
- P2 17:54MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Spezza won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin8:27
xG 0.30–0.23 (57%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0
- Spezza – Radulov – Nichushkin3:44
xG 0.05–0.05 (54%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Nichushkin – Gurianov2:31
xG 0.02–0.13 (16%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Janmark – Dickinson3:27
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestFedun – Bayreuther7:56
xG 0.56–0.24 (70%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Heiskanen5:12
xG 0.39–0.14 (74%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Polak – Heiskanen9:21
xG 0.05–0.13 (28%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Zucker – Granlund14:10
xG 0.81–0.47 (63%)attempts 18–8goals 1–0
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown4:11
xG 0.19–0.09 (69%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Koivu – Parise – Niederreiter10:39
xG 0.76–0.71 (51%)attempts 17–8goals 0–1
- Coyle – Greenway – Kunin6:08
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Brodin14:17
xG 1.19–0.35 (77%)attempts 21–10goals 1–0
- Prosser – Seeler8:52
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon19:14
xG 0.61–0.65 (48%)attempts 21–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).