Sun, Dec 23, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Boston Bruins 3, Carolina Hurricanes 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 211 | 17 | 012 | 330 |
| CAR | 113 | 316 | 18 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:40BOSRyan DonatoPPAssists: Torey Krug, Brad Marchand · Deflected, 0.35 xG1–0
- P1 8:56BOSSteven KampferAssists: Sean Kuraly, Brad Marchand · Snap, 0.01 xG2–0
- P1 12:55CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Jaccob Slavin, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 1:29CARSebastian AhoSHAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 7:11CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 11:47CARJustin FaulkGWGAssists: Micheal Ferland, Justin Williams · Snap, 0.03 xG2–4
- P2 16:05BOSRyan DonatoAssists: Colby Cave, David Backes · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 7:20CARTeuvo TeravainenSHAssists: Sebastian Aho · Snap, 0.19 xG3–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:27CARMicheal Ferland: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 5:35BOSSteven Kampfer: Holding2 min
- P1 6:39BOSNoel Acciari: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:09CARJustin Faulk: Interference2 min
- P1 19:44CARAndrei Svechnikov: High sticking2 min
- P3 5:44CARMicheal Ferland: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:27BOSRyan Donato: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 17:20CARAndrei Svechnikov: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Marchand – Heinen3:28
xG 0.69–0.08 (89%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak7:34
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Krejci – Nordstrom – Pastrnak3:41
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Backes – Cave – Donato8:10
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKampfer – Krug4:18
xG 0.76–0.07 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 2–1
- Krug – McAvoy5:48
xG 0.32–0.22 (60%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo4:27
xG 0.18–0.12 (60%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestTeravainen – Aho – Svechnikov11:55
xG 0.50–0.18 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Martinook – Foegele – Wallmark8:47
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Rask – McGinn – Kuokkanen7:26
xG 0.11–0.29 (27%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Williams – Ferland – Bishop7:47
xG 0.21–0.73 (22%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk11:40
xG 0.42–0.48 (47%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce15:07
xG 0.31–0.48 (40%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- de Haan – Faulk14:25
xG 0.72–0.95 (43%)attempts 14–15goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).