Sun, Dec 23, 2018·Madison Square Garden, New York
Philadelphia Flyers 3, New York Rangers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 010 | 113 | 15 | 03 | 1 | 331 |
| NYR | 19 | 010 | 113 | 02 | 0 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:05NYRChris KreiderAssists: Kevin Hayes, Marc Staal · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 1:46PHIMichael RafflAssists: Travis Sanheim · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P3 5:01PHIWayne SimmondsPPAssists: Sean Couturier, Jakub Voracek · Wrist, 0.45 xG2–1
- P3 5:23NYRBoo NievesAssists: Lias Andersson · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. PHI Jakub Voracek stopped
- 2. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 3. PHI Claude Giroux stopped
- 4. NYR Mika Zibanejad stopped
- 5. PHI James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 6. NYR Pavel Buchnevich stopped
- 7. PHI Nolan Patrick scored
- 8. NYR Kevin Hayes stopped
Penalties (4)
- P2 8:16PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:21NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:16PHINolan Patrick: Holding2 min
- P3 4:53NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Couturier
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Varone – Lindblom5:42
xG 0.27–0.02 (94%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Couturier12:03
xG 0.47–0.47 (50%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny13:12
xG 0.56–0.62 (48%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Patrick11:27
xG 0.47–0.53 (47%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gudas15:08
xG 0.61–0.27 (69%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg15:07
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov17:35
xG 0.55–0.99 (36%)attempts 16–15goals 1–2
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZibanejad – Buchnevich – Chytil13:44
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Kreider – Zuccarello – Hayes11:57
xG 0.57–0.42 (58%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Vesey – Howden9:39
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Strome – Nieves – Andersson7:33
xG 0.29–0.44 (40%)attempts 3–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Pionk17:02
xG 1.17–0.70 (62%)attempts 19–16goals 2–1
- Smith – Claesson14:47
xG 0.44–0.32 (58%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Skjei17:41
xG 0.53–0.99 (35%)attempts 7–22goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).