Sun, Dec 23, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Florida Panthers 6, Chicago Blackhawks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 19 | 314 | 24 | 627 |
| CHI | 19 | 18 | 112 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:23CHIConnor MurphyAssists: Dylan Strome, Brendan Perlini · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 16:21FLAJayce HawrylukAssists: Micheal Haley, Mark Pysyk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 2:35FLAJayce HawrylukAssists: Mike Matheson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 4:56CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Dylan Strome, Jonathan Toews · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P2 16:49FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: MacKenzie Weegar, Frank Vatrano · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–2
- P2 17:20FLAJared McCannGWGAssists: MacKenzie Weegar · Wrist, 0.22 xG4–2
- P3 0:59FLADenis MalginAssists: Jared McCann · Wrist, 0.06 xG5–2
- P3 9:35CHIDylan StromeAssists: Patrick Kane, Connor Murphy · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–3
- P3 18:59FLAFrank VatranoENAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.70 xG6–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:02FLAJayce Hawryluk: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:55CHIJonathan Toews: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:29CHIBrandon Saad: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:42FLAFrank Vatrano: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 16:11CHIDuncan Keith: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 6:20FLATroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McCann won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – McCann – Malgin10:41
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Sceviour – Haley – Hawryluk5:22
xG 0.26–0.08 (76%)attempts 7–3goals 2–0
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov12:53
xG 0.64–0.55 (54%)attempts 15–8goals 0–1
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Borgstrom10:24
xG 0.03–0.19 (14%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Weegar14:49
xG 0.44–0.24 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 2–0
- Pysyk – Kiselevich8:53
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad19:23
xG 0.55–0.81 (41%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestAnisimov – Kane – Strome11:45
xG 0.61–0.42 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
- Perlini – Sikura – Kampf2:37
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Sikura – DeBrincat – Kampf7:58
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Perlini – Nilsson4:57
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Dahlstrom7:20
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 0–1
- Murphy – Forsling6:55
xG 0.14–0.06 (70%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Forsling4:50
xG 0.05–0.10 (33%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).