Sun, Dec 23, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Detroit Red Wings 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 213 | 19 | 16 | 02 | 430 |
| TOR | 13 | 211 | 18 | 12 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:27TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.31 xG0–1
- P1 3:45DETFilip HronekUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 19:18DETMichael RasmussenAssists: Dylan Larkin, Nick Jensen · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 9:53DETChristoffer EhnAssists: Wade Megan · Backhand, 0.06 xG3–1
- P2 12:52TORFrederik GauthierAssists: Par Lindholm, Trevor Moore · Snap, 0.16 xG3–2
- P2 14:00TORMorgan RiellyAssists: John Tavares, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 12:03DETFrans NielsenAssists: Niklas Kronwall, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–3
- P3 19:52TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.12 xG4–4
- OT 1:53TORKasperi KapanenGWGAssists: Travis Dermott, Nazem Kadri · Backhand, 0.07 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 8:28TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:07TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:38TORMitch Marner: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:41DETFilip Hronek: Holding2 min
- P3 5:14DETThomas Vanek: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Bertuzzi9:30
xG 0.63–0.10 (87%)attempts 11–5goals 2–0
- Glendening – de la Rose – Rasmussen4:19
xG 0.23–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Nyquist – Glendening – Rasmussen2:46
xG 0.07–0.02 (75%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Glendening – Bertuzzi – Rasmussen2:13
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Cholowski7:58
xG 0.57–0.09 (86%)attempts 9–4goals 1–0
- Ericsson – Hronek13:25
xG 0.33–0.19 (64%)attempts 14–6goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Jensen2:53
xG 0.14–0.09 (61%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestNylander – Kapanen – Matthews3:45
xG 0.64–0.17 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 1–1
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander7:16
xG 0.33–0.06 (85%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Tavares – Johnsson – Marner13:12
xG 0.52–0.43 (54%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Gauthier – Moore – Lindholm4:37
xG 0.16–0.20 (44%)attempts 2–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly13:07
xG 0.72–0.31 (70%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev11:49
xG 0.72–0.35 (67%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Holl5:09
xG 0.32–0.18 (63%)attempts 5–6goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).