Sun, Dec 23, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New York Islanders 3, Dallas Stars 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 09 | 19 | 210 | 328 |
| DAL | 07 | 17 | 06 | 120 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:20DALTyler PitlickAssists: Mattias Janmark, Jason Spezza · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P2 14:10NYICasey CizikasUnassisted · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–1
- P3 8:50NYIAnders LeePPGWGAssists: Nick Leddy, Mathew Barzal · Tip-in, 0.31 xG2–1
- P3 19:00NYILeo KomarovENUnassisted · Backhand, 0.67 xG3–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:03DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:33DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:36NYIScott Mayfield: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:58DALAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:58NYILeo Komarov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:16NYILeo Komarov: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:16DALAlexander Radulov: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:25DALRadek Faksa: Slashing2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Beauvillier11:16
xG 0.76–0.23 (77%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas3:15
xG 0.35–0.10 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Ho-Sang7:34
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Eberle – Lee – Nelson11:55
xG 0.23–0.25 (49%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLeddy – Mayfield14:51
xG 0.52–0.18 (74%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Sbisa – Toews12:49
xG 0.47–0.20 (70%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:50
xG 0.66–0.48 (58%)attempts 17–9goals 0–1
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin13:35
xG 0.37–0.29 (57%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Faksa – Nichushkin6:45
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Spezza – Janmark – Gurianov3:47
xG 0.12–0.18 (41%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Comeau – Faksa – Shore2:48
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBayreuther – Heiskanen2:23
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Bayreuther2:53
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Fedun – Heiskanen2:10
xG 0.14–0.03 (81%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).