Sun, Dec 23, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 4, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 07 | 215 | 19 | 11 | 432 |
| VGK | 18 | 19 | 14 | 04 | 325 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:10VGKTomas NosekAssists: Oscar Lindberg, Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P2 3:32LAKMichael AmadioAssists: Adrian Kempe, Matt Luff · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:01VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Nick Holden · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 12:52LAKAlex IafalloAssists: Ilya Kovalchuk · Wrap-around, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 2:06LAKJeff CarterPPAssists: Drew Doughty, Anze Kopitar · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–2
- P3 6:55VGKRyan ReavesPPAssists: Nate Schmidt, Brandon Pirri · Tip-in, 0.18 xG3–3
- OT 1:40LAKTyler ToffoliGWGAssists: Oscar Fantenberg, Jeff Carter · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P2 10:39VGKOscar Lindberg: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:37VGKDeryk Engelland: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:29LAKAdrian Kempe: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo16:07
xG 0.71–0.43 (62%)attempts 19–9goals 0–0
- Thompson – Amadio – Luff2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Scherbak – Amadio – Luff5:51
xG 0.04–0.26 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Carter – Toffoli – Kempe12:48
xG 0.14–0.41 (26%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDoughty – Forbort21:43
xG 0.81–0.53 (60%)attempts 23–14goals 0–1
- Doughty – Fantenberg2:23
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Fantenberg3:01
xG 0.09–0.12 (45%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Smith – Pirri7:10
xG 0.42–0.02 (96%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault8:57
xG 0.37–0.12 (76%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare6:46
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
- Stastny – Pirri – Tuch7:20
xG 0.24–0.27 (48%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt18:36
xG 0.86–0.52 (62%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore17:25
xG 0.37–0.30 (55%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill12:58
xG 0.25–0.53 (32%)attempts 7–11goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).