Thu, Dec 27, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
New Jersey Devils 5, Boston Bruins 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 212 | 09 | 312 | 533 |
| BOS | 010 | 119 | 113 | 242 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:25NJDDamon SeversonAssists: Andy Greene, Travis Zajac · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 15:25NJDKyle PalmieriPPAssists: Will Butcher, Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 15:07BOSChris WagnerAssists: John Moore, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–1
- P3 4:15NJDBlake ColemanGWGUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 12:43NJDNico HischierAssists: Miles Wood, Stefan Noesen · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P3 17:05BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Jake DeBrusk · Tip-in, 0.10 xG4–2
- P3 19:12NJDBlake ColemanENAssists: Nico Hischier, Andy Greene · Wrist, 0.70 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:15NJDStefan Noesen: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:50BOSJohn Moore: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:06BOSColby Cave: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:48NJDAndy Greene: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:51BOSKevan Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:00BOSDavid Backes: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krejci won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestNoesen – Wood – Zacha9:17
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Wood – Bratt – Hischier2:22
xG 0.02–0.05 (27%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Quenneville8:29
xG 0.13–0.23 (37%)attempts 6–9goals 2–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Seney7:03
xG 0.16–0.25 (38%)attempts 3–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestLovejoy – Butcher11:24
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- Vatanen – Santini13:38
xG 0.70–0.58 (54%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Greene – Severson14:19
xG 0.66–0.57 (53%)attempts 11–19goals 3–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestWagner – Kuraly – Heinen5:13
xG 0.29–0.02 (93%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Krejci – Nordstrom – DeBrusk5:07
xG 0.10–0.07 (60%)attempts 7–1goals 0–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:07
xG 0.84–0.82 (51%)attempts 22–12goals 0–1
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly5:16
xG 0.12–0.19 (38%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Krug – Carlo14:26
xG 0.42–0.45 (48%)attempts 15–11goals 0–3
- Miller – Krug3:21
xG 0.26–0.48 (36%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Chara – Grzelcyk14:40
xG 0.57–0.80 (41%)attempts 24–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).