Thu, Dec 27, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Detroit Red Wings 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 114 | 07 | 18 | 229 |
| PIT | 010 | 314 | 216 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:49DETDylan LarkinAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Justin Abdelkader · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 7:12PITPhil KesselPPAssists: Sidney Crosby, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 8:26PITDerick BrassardAssists: Phil Kessel, Tanner Pearson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 18:58PITPhil KesselPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
- P3 4:45DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Michael Rasmussen, Luke Glendening · Snap, 0.18 xG2–3
- P3 5:55PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Jack Johnson, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 17:35PITDerick BrassardENAssists: Evgeni Malkin · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (4)
- P1 1:23PITJuuso Riikola: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:08DETFilip Hronek: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 18:15DETTrevor Daley: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:57DETThomas Vanek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Vanek – Bertuzzi10:49
xG 0.87–0.60 (59%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Megan – de la Rose – Ehn5:24
xG 0.03–0.17 (14%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Rasmussen8:26
xG 0.28–0.55 (34%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin13:00
xG 0.24–0.64 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Daley – Ericsson3:33
xG 0.30–0.42 (42%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Daley – Cholowski10:37
xG 0.37–0.55 (40%)attempts 10–12goals 0–1
- Ericsson – Hronek12:23
xG 0.57–0.92 (38%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCrosby – Rust – Guentzel14:47
xG 0.95–0.15 (87%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Cullen – Sheahan – Aston-Reese8:22
xG 0.28–0.15 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Simon12:36
xG 0.84–0.71 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 1–2
- Brassard – Kessel – Pearson11:09
xG 0.56–0.79 (41%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Pettersson15:16
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin18:22
xG 1.15–0.65 (64%)attempts 22–15goals 1–1
- Maatta – Riikola15:29
xG 0.43–0.65 (40%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).