Thu, Dec 27, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 08 | 08 | 113 | 129 |
| WSH | 016 | 29 | 18 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:33WSHChandler StephensonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 18:16WSHT.J. OshiePPGWGAssists: John Carlson, Alex Ovechkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–2
- P3 12:25CARSebastian AhoAssists: Micheal Ferland · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–2
- P3 19:09WSHJohn CarlsonENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.52 xG1–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:50CARSebastian Aho: Slashing2 min
- P1 9:35WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:56WSHBrett Connolly: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:25WSHT.J. Oshie: Interference2 min
- P2 4:16CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 6:18CARAndrei Svechnikov: Interference2 min
- P2 17:18CARBrett Pesce: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 16:12WSHMichal Kempny: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:00WSHNicklas Backstrom: Game misconduct head coach0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Wallmark
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestWilliams – Ferland – Bishop10:06
xG 0.51–0.41 (55%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Aho – Svechnikov11:27
xG 0.51–0.53 (49%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Rask – McGinn – Kuokkanen3:17
xG 0.09–0.18 (32%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Martinook – Foegele – Wallmark8:49
xG 0.31–0.50 (39%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Slavin – Pesce14:24
xG 0.65–0.60 (52%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- de Haan – Faulk14:14
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Hamilton – van Riemsdyk11:12
xG 0.66–0.83 (44%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestKuznetsov – Wilson – Vrana7:40
xG 0.83–0.29 (74%)attempts 13–3goals 0–0
- Eller – Connolly – Burakovsky8:05
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Boyd – Stephenson8:53
xG 0.36–0.66 (35%)attempts 6–14goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Oshie – Backstrom11:26
xG 0.32–0.83 (28%)attempts 7–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestNiskanen – Orlov12:20
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Bowey – Siegenthaler11:54
xG 0.63–0.34 (65%)attempts 10–14goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny12:14
xG 0.83–0.66 (56%)attempts 16–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).