Thu, Dec 27, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 6 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 111 | 19 | 313 | 00 | 533 |
| TBL | 216 | 312 | 08 | 11 | 637 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:50PHIMichael RafflAssists: Scott Laughton, Travis Sanheim · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–0
- P1 13:56TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Tyler Johnson, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.08 xG1–1
- P1 19:12TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Yanni Gourde, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–2
- P2 4:36PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Radko Gudas · Wrist, 0.20 xG2–2
- P2 12:23TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 14:54TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 19:51TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Deflected, 0.16 xG2–5
- P3 1:33PHIDale WeiseAssists: James van Riemsdyk · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 4:21PHIRobert HaggAssists: Claude Giroux, James van Riemsdyk · Slap, 0.07 xG4–5
- P3 8:38PHIIvan ProvorovAssists: Jakub Voracek, Sean Couturier · Snap, 0.06 xG5–5
- OT 0:18TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–6
Penalties (9)
- P1 8:20TBLTyler Johnson: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:22PHITravis Sanheim: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:33TBLAnthony Cirelli: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:33PHINolan Patrick: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:36TBLJ.T. Miller: Delaying game bench2 min
- P2 13:21PHIAndrew MacDonald: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 14:00PHIMichael Raffl: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:16TBLAdam Erne: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:16PHIRadko Gudas: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeise – Varone – Lindblom3:48
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Couturier10:49
xG 0.33–0.25 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Weise – Laughton – Raffl2:49
xG 0.10–0.03 (80%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Laughton – Raffl – Patrick3:49
xG 0.10–0.35 (23%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gudas12:10
xG 0.70–0.44 (61%)attempts 21–10goals 2–0
- Hagg – Provorov2:16
xG 0.36–0.12 (75%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Sanheim – Provorov14:25
xG 0.60–0.43 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 2–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Miller – Cirelli3:44
xG 0.18–0.06 (73%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Callahan – Paquette – Erne7:35
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Callahan – Killorn – Cirelli3:16
xG 0.08–0.18 (31%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Gourde10:09
xG 0.01–0.24 (3%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Hedman14:54
xG 0.52–0.42 (55%)attempts 11–17goals 2–0
- McDonagh – Sergachev2:31
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Stralman – McDonagh14:07
xG 0.73–0.84 (46%)attempts 13–17goals 0–4
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).