Thu, Dec 27, 2018·Bell MTS Place, Winnipeg
Calgary Flames 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 07 | 214 | 28 | 429 |
| WPG | 014 | 111 | 011 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:04CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 17:53WPGAdam LowryUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 18:47CGYJohnny GaudreauGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Sean Monahan · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 15:39CGYMark JankowskiSHAssists: Elias Lindholm, Travis Hamonic · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 17:54CGYJohnny GaudreauENAssists: Sean Monahan, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.60 xG4–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:15WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:33CGYTJ Brodie: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:35WPGMark Scheifele: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:00WPGBen Chiarot: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:29CGYSam Bennett: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:29WPGNikolaj Ehlers: Holding2 min
- P3 15:16CGYDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:54WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Scheifele
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan9:44
xG 0.50–0.52 (49%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Neal – Quine – Jankowski9:44
xG 0.59–0.62 (49%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Frolik – Hathaway – Ryan7:08
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Backlund – Bennett – Tkachuk9:45
xG 0.14–0.47 (23%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hamonic – Hanifin14:32
xG 0.56–0.55 (51%)attempts 13–14goals 2–0
- Andersson – Kylington9:55
xG 0.52–0.70 (43%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie16:37
xG 0.32–0.87 (27%)attempts 10–20goals 0–1
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestLittle – Connor – Laine9:42
xG 0.72–0.39 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Copp – Roslovic – Appleton6:05
xG 0.32–0.02 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev7:41
xG 0.41–0.13 (77%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers13:44
xG 0.54–0.60 (48%)attempts 14–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Kulikov11:21
xG 0.80–0.13 (86%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Chiarot15:46
xG 0.77–0.47 (62%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
- Trouba – Morrissey15:12
xG 0.74–0.75 (50%)attempts 18–19goals 1–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).