Thu, Dec 27, 2018·United Center, Chicago
Minnesota Wild 2, Chicago Blackhawks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 115 | 016 | 117 | 248 |
| CHI | 14 | 211 | 25 | 520 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:00MINZach PariseAssists: Eric Staal, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 0:23CHIBrandon SaadAssists: Jonathan Toews, Dominik Kahun · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 3:53CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 12:17CHIBrandon SaadPPAssists: Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–4
- P3 19:09MINEric StaalAssists: Ryan Suter, Mikael Granlund · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–4
- P3 19:33CHIPatrick KaneENAssists: Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.65 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:43MINNino Niederreiter: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 12:58CHIBrendan Perlini: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:39MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 4:38CHIDuncan Keith: High sticking2 min
- P2 6:07MINAlex Stalock: Delaying game2 min
- P3 4:37CHIDylan Strome: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 10:56MINEric Staal: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestParise – Coyle – Kunin11:26
xG 0.72–0.09 (89%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Fehr – Foligno – Brown7:25
xG 0.15–0.01 (93%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Zucker – Granlund11:48
xG 0.57–0.47 (55%)attempts 21–9goals 0–1
- Koivu – Niederreiter – Greenway9:46
xG 0.35–0.56 (38%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPateryn – Brodin14:47
xG 0.66–0.10 (86%)attempts 21–8goals 0–0
- Suter – Spurgeon17:46
xG 0.94–0.69 (58%)attempts 26–15goals 0–2
- Prosser – Seeler7:03
xG 0.09–0.33 (20%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- Perlini – DeBrincat – Kampf7:09
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Hayden – Sikura – Nilsson6:40
xG 0.07–0.13 (35%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Kahun10:56
xG 0.18–0.27 (40%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Strome12:23
xG 0.30–0.67 (31%)attempts 8–21goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- Seabrook – Dahlstrom2:03
xG 0.07–0.03 (68%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Forsling2:29
xG 0.04–0.01 (78%)attempts 1–3goals 1–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom14:14
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 9–20goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).