Thu, Dec 27, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Vancouver Canucks 4, Edmonton Oilers 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 46 | 05 | 09 | 420 |
| EDM | 111 | 111 | 010 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:48VANTyler MotteAssists: Antoine Roussel · Snap, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 6:25VANBrock BoeserAssists: Elias Pettersson, Nikolay Goldobin · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P1 10:24EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–1
- P1 18:48VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Nikolay Goldobin, Derrick Pouliot · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P1 19:49VANAntoine RousselAssists: Jay Beagle, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–1
- P2 7:05EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Connor McDavid, Darnell Nurse · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 9:51VANLoui Eriksson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 1:37VANJake Virtanen: Interference2 min
- P2 6:37VANBen Hutton: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:11EDMConnor McDavid: Elbowing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brodziak won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBeagle – Roussel – Motte11:30
xG 0.40–0.22 (65%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Horvat – Virtanen11:38
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Goldobin – Boeser – Pettersson9:22
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 8–12goals 2–0
- Leivo – Granlund – Gaudette4:37
xG 0.01–0.19 (5%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEdler – Tanev15:47
xG 0.66–0.40 (63%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Edler – Gudbranson2:17
xG 0.30–0.14 (68%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton13:46
xG 0.58–0.46 (56%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestBrodziak – Kassian – Rieder6:53
xG 0.41–0.13 (76%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Spooner – Nugent-Hopkins – Zykov3:28
xG 0.37–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi4:08
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Chiasson – Draisaitl – McDavid3:36
xG 0.07–0.01 (83%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBenning – Jones14:14
xG 0.39–0.12 (77%)attempts 17–4goals 0–0
- Gravel – Benning3:04
xG 0.28–0.06 (82%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wideman – Gravel8:41
xG 0.17–0.25 (40%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).