Fri, Dec 28, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Montréal Canadiens 5, Florida Panthers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 29 | 07 | 312 | 528 |
| FLA | 27 | 08 | 111 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35MTLTomas TatarUnassisted · Backhand, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 2:51MTLNicolas DeslauriersAssists: Victor Mete, Shea Weber · Tip-in, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 8:01FLAHenrik BorgstromAssists: Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P1 13:53FLADenis MalginAssists: Troy Brouwer · Slap, 0.20 xG2–2
- P3 8:54MTLTomas TatarPPAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Max Domi · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 15:40MTLArtturi LehkonenGWGAssists: Andrew Shaw, Brett Kulak · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 18:44FLAKeith YandlePPAssists: Mike Hoffman, Aleksander Barkov · Slap, 0.04 xG4–3
- P3 19:37MTLJonathan DrouinENAssists: Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.71 xG5–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 16:57FLATroy Brouwer: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:16MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26MTLMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:49FLAFrank Vatrano: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:08FLAMacKenzie Weegar: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 17:39MTLPhillip Danault: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 17:39MTLPhillip Danault: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:39FLAAaron Ekblad: Fighting5 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Danault won the faceoff against McCann
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Drouin – Domi10:32
xG 0.82–0.41 (67%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault10:20
xG 0.30–0.17 (63%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino9:08
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Shaw – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi9:25
xG 0.23–0.40 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBenn – Kulak10:27
xG 0.83–0.31 (73%)attempts 13–3goals 1–1
- Weber – Mete16:58
xG 0.68–0.44 (61%)attempts 12–18goals 2–0
- Petry – Reilly14:52
xG 0.41–0.32 (57%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Vatrano – Borgstrom11:03
xG 0.42–0.24 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Brouwer – McCann – Malgin8:29
xG 0.46–0.48 (49%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
- Sceviour – Haley – Hawryluk6:04
xG 0.03–0.10 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov13:02
xG 0.15–0.61 (20%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Kiselevich11:40
xG 0.38–0.33 (54%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Matheson – Weegar17:34
xG 0.33–0.73 (31%)attempts 7–16goals 1–2
- Yandle – Ekblad13:40
xG 0.32–0.86 (27%)attempts 12–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).