Fri, Dec 28, 2018·Barclays Center, Brooklyn
Ottawa Senators 3, New York Islanders 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 110 | 211 | 06 | 327 |
| NYI | 010 | 215 | 414 | 639 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:18OTTMark StoneUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 2:47OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.20 xG2–0
- P2 3:11NYIJosh BaileyAssists: Mathew Barzal · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 6:11OTTCody CeciAssists: Chris Tierney, Mikkel Boedker · Snap, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 17:28NYIAnders LeeUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 2:57NYIJohnny BoychukAssists: Casey Cizikas, Matt Martin · Slap, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 4:51NYIMathew BarzalGWGAssists: Leo Komarov, Anthony Beauvillier · Snap, 0.08 xG3–4
- P3 12:24NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Josh Bailey · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 19:06NYICasey CizikasENAssists: Tom Kuhnhackl · Slap, 0.64 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 8:36OTTMaxime Lajoie: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:15NYICasey Cizikas: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 19:30NYIMatt Martin: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:30OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:50NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:50NYIRoss Johnston: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:50OTTChristian Jaros: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00OTTBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00NYIScott Mayfield: Fighting5 min
- P3 0:00NYICasey Cizikas: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against White
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – White – Tkachuk14:35
xG 0.67–0.42 (62%)attempts 13–16goals 0–1
- Ryan – Boedker – Tierney14:03
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 10–20goals 1–1
- Smith – Duchene – Dzingel13:22
xG 0.23–0.50 (31%)attempts 12–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot4:53
xG 0.22–0.09 (72%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Harpur – Chabot2:01
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Jaros10:58
xG 0.27–0.28 (49%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Beauvillier14:49
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 23–6goals 1–2
- Lee – Nelson – Ho-Sang10:02
xG 0.47–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Filppula – Komarov – Cizikas2:11
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston6:47
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 5–5goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMayfield – Toews17:36
xG 0.88–0.37 (70%)attempts 24–11goals 2–1
- Boychuk – Leddy17:31
xG 0.60–0.75 (44%)attempts 20–18goals 1–0
- Pelech – Pulock16:07
xG 0.22–0.54 (29%)attempts 16–13goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).