Fri, Dec 28, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 16 | 110 | 429 |
| CBJ | 18 | 010 | 111 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:22TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Nazem Kadri, Mitch Marner · Deflected, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 4:47CBJNick FolignoAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Seth Jones · Snap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 18:04TORJohn TavaresAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P2 9:46TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–1
- P3 13:44TORFrederik GauthierAssists: Par Lindholm, Trevor Moore · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–1
- P3 18:32CBJArtemi PanarinAssists: Zach Werenski · Slap, 0.09 xG4–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 1:50CBJJosh Anderson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 12:24TORWilliam Nylander: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:35CBJAnthony Duclair: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05CBJScott Harrington: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:05TORKasperi Kapanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:18TORNazem Kadri: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Wennberg won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGauthier – Moore – Lindholm6:42
xG 0.47–0.03 (94%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Tavares – Johnsson – Marner13:53
xG 0.54–0.59 (48%)attempts 17–14goals 1–0
- Kadri – Brown – Nylander12:05
xG 0.49–0.71 (41%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kapanen – Matthews10:31
xG 0.09–0.51 (15%)attempts 2–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Dermott – Ozhiganov13:42
xG 0.47–0.52 (47%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev16:12
xG 0.43–0.53 (45%)attempts 14–15goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Rielly15:05
xG 0.42–0.89 (32%)attempts 12–17goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Atkinson – Wennberg3:39
xG 0.34–0.04 (89%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Atkinson – Panarin – Dubois8:54
xG 0.43–0.18 (71%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Foligno – Duclair – Wennberg6:05
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Jenner – Anderson – Bjorkstrand9:55
xG 0.41–0.32 (56%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJones – Werenski16:22
xG 0.91–0.61 (60%)attempts 25–19goals 2–0
- Savard – Harrington13:32
xG 0.60–0.49 (55%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
- Murray – Nutivaara16:31
xG 0.33–0.66 (33%)attempts 10–8goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).