Sat, Dec 29, 2018·Prudential Center, Newark
Carolina Hurricanes 0, New Jersey Devils 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 013 | 013 | 011 | 037 |
| NJD | 09 | 113 | 18 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 19:24NJDPavel ZachaSHGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.35 xG0–1
- P3 19:27NJDAndy GreeneENAssists: Nico Hischier, Pavel Zacha · Slap, 0.65 xG0–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:36CARCalvin de Haan: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:39NJDSami Vatanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:56NJDSteven Santini: Interference2 min
- P2 8:16CARCalvin de Haan: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:08NJDWill Butcher: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 17:26NJDJohn Quenneville: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:11CARClark Bishop: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:24NJDSteven Santini: Interference2 min
- P3 17:20CARJordan Martinook: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:20NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Martinook
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestMartinook – Wallmark – Svechnikov7:41
xG 0.46–0.21 (68%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Teravainen – McGinn – Aho8:58
xG 0.42–0.25 (63%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Martinook – Foegele – Bishop2:02
xG 0.16–0.05 (76%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Rask – Foegele – Kuokkanen5:28
xG 0.07–0.28 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestde Haan – Pesce3:28
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Slavin – van Riemsdyk2:17
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- de Haan – Faulk10:31
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hischier10:12
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Noesen – Wood – Zacha9:12
xG 0.41–0.18 (70%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Seney5:23
xG 0.21–0.06 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Quenneville7:07
xG 0.26–0.38 (41%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Severson3:20
xG 0.30–0.08 (79%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher6:05
xG 0.34–0.13 (73%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Vatanen – Santini9:24
xG 0.41–0.34 (54%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NJD's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NJD is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NJD − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).