Sat, Dec 29, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
San Jose Sharks 7, Edmonton Oilers 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 212 | 216 | 312 | 740 |
| EDM | 112 | 07 | 37 | 426 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:28EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Ty Rattie, Leon Draisaitl · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 6:44SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Erik Karlsson, Tomas Hertl · Snap, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 10:13SJSTomas HertlAssists: Brent Burns, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–1
- P2 6:39SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Joe Thornton, Joe Pavelski · Snap, 0.09 xG3–1
- P2 18:45SJSErik KarlssonAssists: Barclay Goodrow, Joonas Donskoi · Slap, 0.02 xG4–1
- P3 2:41SJSMelker KarlssonGWGAssists: Brent Burns, Kevin Labanc · Deflected, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 8:25SJSLogan CoutureSHAssists: Evander Kane · Snap, 0.16 xG6–1
- P3 10:40EDMCaleb JonesAssists: Ty Rattie, Drake Caggiula · Snap, 0.10 xG6–2
- P3 14:09SJSMelker KarlssonAssists: Erik Karlsson, Barclay Goodrow · Snap, 0.18 xG7–2
- P3 16:53EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Milan Lucic, Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.08 xG7–3
- P3 19:54EDMConnor McDavidAssists: Chris Wideman, Ty Rattie · Deflected, 0.08 xG7–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:25EDMDrake Caggiula: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:05EDMChris Wideman: Holding2 min
- P2 14:30EDMChris Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:04SJSTimo Meier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00McDavid won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestKane – Donskoi – Hertl11:10
xG 0.97–0.39 (71%)attempts 12–10goals 2–2
- Goodrow – Karlsson – Labanc7:27
xG 0.44–0.20 (69%)attempts 8–5goals 2–1
- Couture – Meier – Radil11:45
xG 0.40–0.37 (52%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Sorensen7:39
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 13–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Simek12:15
xG 0.86–0.07 (92%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- Karlsson – Dillon10:35
xG 0.71–0.31 (70%)attempts 12–6goals 3–1
- Burns – Karlsson2:00
xG 0.24–0.01 (95%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Rattie – McDavid – Caggiula4:40
xG 0.19–0.23 (45%)attempts 2–6goals 2–1
- Lucic – Draisaitl – Yamamoto2:49
xG 0.10–0.18 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 1–1
- Nugent-Hopkins – Khaira – Puljujarvi4:34
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Rattie – Draisaitl – McDavid8:09
xG 0.71–0.82 (46%)attempts 9–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Larsson – Nurse16:19
xG 0.81–0.93 (47%)attempts 16–17goals 0–2
- Larsson – Jones2:56
xG 0.04–0.24 (14%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
- Gravel – Benning5:01
xG 0.01–0.24 (5%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).