Sat, Dec 29, 2018·STAPLES Center, Los Angeles
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Los Angeles Kings 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 112 | 112 | 28 | 432 |
| LAK | 18 | 07 | 016 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55VGKWilliam CarrierAssists: Cody Eakin, Nick Holden · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P1 19:55LAKAnze KopitarAssists: Sean Walker, Alex Iafallo · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 12:26VGKAlex TuchGWGAssists: Paul Stastny · Slap, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 3:20VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–1
- P3 17:28VGKPaul StastnyENAssists: Alex Tuch, Nate Schmidt · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (3)
- P2 0:54VGKAlex Tuch: Holding2 min
- P2 8:36VGKJon Merrill: Hooking2 min
- P3 19:08LAKBrendan Leipsic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:09
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Reaves – Bellemare – Nosek9:39
xG 0.16–0.07 (70%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pirri – Tuch10:57
xG 0.67–0.62 (52%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Eakin – Carrier – Carpenter9:31
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Merrill15:46
xG 0.75–0.45 (62%)attempts 19–11goals 1–0
- McNabb – Schmidt17:47
xG 0.79–0.74 (52%)attempts 17–21goals 2–1
- Engelland – Theodore15:59
xG 0.67–0.77 (47%)attempts 22–11goals 0–0
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Toffoli – Kempe11:08
xG 0.55–0.49 (53%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Thompson – Leipsic12:41
xG 0.57–0.51 (52%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo17:11
xG 0.66–0.61 (52%)attempts 14–22goals 1–0
- Clifford – Amadio – Luff6:19
xG 0.20–0.50 (29%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Walker18:35
xG 1.45–0.78 (65%)attempts 26–14goals 1–2
- Doughty – Fantenberg4:48
xG 0.15–0.11 (59%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- LaDue – Fantenberg10:06
xG 0.09–0.28 (24%)attempts 5–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
LAK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line LAK is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (LAK − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).