Sat, Dec 29, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Boston Bruins 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 07 | 118 | 13 | 342 |
| BUF | 17 | 114 | 05 | 02 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40BUFMarco ScandellaAssists: Jeff Skinner, Sam Reinhart · Wrist, 0.30 xG0–1
- P1 9:30BOSNoel AcciariUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:43BUFJohan LarssonSHAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 17:31BOSJake DeBruskPPAssists: Torey Krug, David Pastrnak · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 3:44BOSSean KuralyGWGAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Kevan Miller · Backhand, 0.30 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 11:07BUFZach Bogosian: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:48BOSColby Cave: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:53BOSTorey Krug: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02BUFJack Eichel: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 16:17BUFRasmus Ristolainen: Kneeing2 min · PPG
- OT 0:34BOSDavid Krejci: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bergeron won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestBergeron – Kuraly – Pastrnak4:47
xG 0.40–0.13 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Acciari3:28
xG 0.29–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Bergeron – Pastrnak – Donato2:35
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Wagner – Cave – Acciari4:12
xG 0.09–0.16 (36%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Miller2:27
xG 0.29–0.02 (95%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug2:37
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk13:27
xG 0.44–0.25 (63%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Reinhart – Eichel13:44
xG 0.93–0.60 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Pominville – Sobotka – Thompson8:16
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Larsson – Elie – Rodrigues5:47
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Okposo – Sheary – Mittelstadt10:39
xG 0.24–0.73 (25%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Beaulieu15:36
xG 0.77–0.52 (60%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- McCabe – Ristolainen15:49
xG 0.52–0.53 (49%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
- Scandella – Dahlin12:49
xG 0.56–0.71 (44%)attempts 9–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 68% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).