Sat, Dec 29, 2018·BB&T Center, Sunrise
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Florida Panthers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 112 | 08 | 015 | 135 |
| FLA | 014 | 09 | 213 | 236 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:45PHIShayne GostisbehereAssists: Jordan Weal, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P3 13:16FLAMike HoffmanPPAssists: Jonathan Huberdeau, Aleksander Barkov · Snap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P3 18:54FLAJonathan HuberdeauGWGAssists: Aleksander Barkov, Evgenii Dadonov · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
Penalties (5)
- P1 11:00PHITravis Konecny: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 12:20PHIDale Weise: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:30FLAAlexander Petrovic: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 10:32FLAJonathan Huberdeau: Holding2 min
- P3 12:17PHIJames van Riemsdyk: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestWeal – Laughton – Raffl8:57
xG 0.73–0.18 (80%)attempts 16–4goals 1–0
- Giroux – van Riemsdyk – Konecny11:12
xG 0.65–0.48 (58%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Weise – Varone – Lindblom7:55
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Voracek – Simmonds – Couturier11:01
xG 0.41–0.53 (44%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gudas15:31
xG 0.97–0.65 (60%)attempts 20–21goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Hagg10:48
xG 0.49–0.22 (69%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Sanheim – Provorov18:41
xG 0.59–0.71 (45%)attempts 14–21goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestDadonov – Huberdeau – Barkov17:08
xG 0.94–0.87 (52%)attempts 25–15goals 1–0
- Sceviour – Hawryluk – Lammikko3:52
xG 0.04–0.05 (43%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Sceviour – McCann – Vatrano4:14
xG 0.08–0.10 (44%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Malgin – Borgstrom5:23
xG 0.13–0.20 (40%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson17:17
xG 0.67–0.61 (53%)attempts 17–15goals 0–0
- Petrovic – Weegar13:53
xG 0.22–0.46 (32%)attempts 10–11goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad17:35
xG 0.93–1.20 (44%)attempts 26–25goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).