Sat, Dec 29, 2018·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Pittsburgh Penguins 6, St. Louis Blues 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 112 | 36 | 212 | 630 |
| STL | 08 | 112 | 011 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:48PITSidney CrosbyPPAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Phil Kessel · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 5:13PITJuuso RiikolaPPGWGAssists: Tanner Pearson, Derick Brassard · Slap, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 7:17PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 9:25PITPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Kris Letang, Phil Kessel · Deflected, 0.18 xG4–0
- P2 14:36STLDavid PerronAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Alexander Steen · Wrist, 0.09 xG4–1
- P3 3:05PITJake GuentzelAssists: Brian Dumoulin, Sidney Crosby · Tip-in, 0.11 xG5–1
- P3 3:38PITEvgeni MalkinPPAssists: Phil Kessel, Kris Letang · Snap, 0.12 xG6–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:09STLAlexander Steen: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:11PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P2 3:24STLAlexander Steen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:18STLJay Bouwmeester: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:05STLJoel Edmundson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:05PITZachary Aston-Reese: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:05STLJoel Edmundson: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:56PITEvgeni Malkin: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Crosby won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCullen – Sheahan – Aston-Reese3:31
xG 0.10–0.02 (84%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel3:29
xG 0.02–0.04 (32%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Aston-Reese5:13
xG 0.20–0.24 (46%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Malkin – Hornqvist – Simon8:23
xG 0.09–0.14 (40%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Maatta – Riikola8:38
xG 0.34–0.32 (52%)attempts 6–17goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin11:04
xG 0.35–0.42 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Johnson – Pettersson11:11
xG 0.12–0.70 (15%)attempts 5–15goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestMaroon – Bozak – Thomas6:11
xG 0.73–0.14 (84%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Steen – Perron – O'Reilly9:28
xG 0.36–0.08 (82%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Schenn – Tarasenko – Schwartz9:22
xG 0.35–0.29 (55%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Nolan – Sundqvist – Barbashev6:27
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBortuzzo – Dunn9:18
xG 0.70–0.24 (75%)attempts 18–4goals 0–0
- Edmundson – Parayko11:11
xG 0.43–0.07 (87%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Pietrangelo11:14
xG 0.45–0.31 (59%)attempts 15–8goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).