Sat, Dec 29, 2018·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
New York Rangers 4, Nashville Predators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 18 | 110 | 24 | 422 |
| NSH | 117 | 211 | 09 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:42NYRChris KreiderPPAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Kevin Hayes · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 8:43NSHNick BoninoPPAssists: Mattias Ekholm, Kevin Fiala · Tip-in, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 3:51NYRJesper FastAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 4:44NSHKevin FialaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 10:35NSHNick BoninoPPAssists: Craig Smith, Kevin Fiala · Backhand, 0.32 xG2–3
- P3 4:23NYRMarc StaalAssists: Jesper Fast, Mika Zibanejad · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 7:35NYRJesper FastGWGAssists: Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider · Slap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:35NSHKevin Fiala: Bench2 min · PPG
- P1 7:28NYRBrady Skjei: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 14:08NYRChris Kreider: Holding2 min
- P1 16:01NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:46NSHMattias Ekholm: Interference2 min
- P2 10:25NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 12:38NYRCody McLeod: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestMcLeod – Strome – Vesey8:55
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad10:30
xG 0.54–0.54 (50%)attempts 9–14goals 3–0
- Zuccarello – Hayes – Namestnikov12:14
xG 0.41–0.55 (43%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Howden – Chytil7:49
xG 0.19–0.44 (31%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSmith – DeAngelo13:20
xG 0.59–0.44 (58%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Staal – Pionk15:21
xG 0.46–0.40 (53%)attempts 13–17goals 1–1
- McQuaid – Skjei16:07
xG 0.65–1.11 (37%)attempts 11–24goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestBonino – Watson – Salomaki11:14
xG 0.64–0.45 (58%)attempts 15–6goals 0–1
- Johansen – Grimaldi – Arvidsson6:52
xG 0.50–0.33 (60%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Smith – Jarnkrok – Fiala10:00
xG 0.24–0.14 (64%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Grimaldi – Gaudreau3:13
xG 0.19–0.11 (63%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJosi – Ellis17:33
xG 0.97–0.56 (63%)attempts 22–12goals 0–0
- Hamhuis – Bitetto10:27
xG 0.16–0.17 (48%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Subban – Ekholm14:32
xG 0.48–0.99 (33%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).