Sat, Dec 29, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 215 | 09 | 011 | 12 | 337 |
| COL | 116 | 19 | 07 | 00 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:46CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Dylan Strome · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 9:38CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Artem Anisimov, Dylan Strome · Snap, 0.06 xG2–0
- P1 17:04COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 18:21COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Patrik Nemeth, Sven Andrighetto · Slap, 0.04 xG2–2
- OT 0:41CHIPatrick KanePPGWGAssists: Jonathan Toews, Erik Gustafsson · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:03COLAlexander Kerfoot: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 12:19CHIConnor Murphy: Interference2 min
- P1 16:22CHIGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 18:58CHIGustav Forsling: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:00COLMatt Calvert: Interference2 min
- P3 6:38COLCarl Soderberg: High sticking2 min
- P3 18:48COLGabriel Landeskog: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kahun won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSikura – DeBrincat – Kampf6:35
xG 0.34–0.04 (88%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Kruger – Hayden – Perlini5:13
xG 0.18–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Kahun12:34
xG 0.55–0.43 (56%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Anisimov – Kane – Strome12:40
xG 0.25–0.69 (27%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSeabrook – Forsling8:11
xG 0.55–0.29 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Gustafsson – Forsling2:50
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:21
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – Kerfoot – Compher5:15
xG 0.53–0.23 (70%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Dries7:58
xG 0.43–0.20 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Nieto – MacKinnon – Rantanen5:49
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Nieto – Kerfoot – Compher5:41
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie13:50
xG 0.67–0.25 (73%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Johnson – Barrie2:29
xG 0.41–0.05 (88%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Graves5:57
xG 0.31–0.00 (99%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).