Sat, Dec 29, 2018·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Vancouver Canucks 3, Calgary Flames 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 16 | 110 | 08 | 13 | 327 |
| CGY | 113 | 19 | 08 | 03 | 233 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:08VANBrock BoeserPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Sven Baertschi · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–0
- P1 14:30CGYMark JankowskiSHAssists: Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 8:46CGYTravis HamonicSHAssists: Mark Jankowski · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 11:37VANElias PetterssonAssists: Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 3:06VANAlexander EdlerGWGAssists: Brock Boeser · Snap, 0.30 xG3–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:23VANTroy Stecher: High sticking2 min
- P1 4:49CGYJohnny Gaudreau: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:13CGYDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:03VANAlexander Edler: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:09VANBen Hutton: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:47CGYGarnet Hathaway: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:00CGYMark Giordano: Boarding2 min
- P2 17:15VANJake Virtanen: High sticking2 min
- P2 0:00VANErik Gudbranson: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backlund won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Horvat – Virtanen5:01
xG 0.41–0.28 (59%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Horvat – Virtanen – Goldobin2:00
xG 0.20–0.17 (54%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Leivo – Boeser – Pettersson3:28
xG 0.12–0.10 (56%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Roussel – Motte3:46
xG 0.08–0.11 (42%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudbranson – Pouliot9:47
xG 0.60–0.53 (53%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev15:27
xG 0.40–0.39 (51%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Hutton – Stecher13:04
xG 0.61–1.20 (34%)attempts 13–14goals 0–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan13:35
xG 1.26–0.80 (61%)attempts 19–14goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Bennett3:44
xG 0.27–0.15 (65%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
- Neal – Jankowski – Dube2:31
xG 0.15–0.14 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Ryan – Dube2:19
xG 0.12–0.14 (46%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAndersson – Kylington9:54
xG 0.86–0.20 (82%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Giordano – Brodie15:48
xG 1.03–1.20 (46%)attempts 19–16goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Hanifin13:07
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 11–19goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).