Mon, Dec 31, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Philadelphia Flyers 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 011 | 06 | 16 | 123 |
| CAR | 18 | 214 | 011 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:47CARLucas WallmarkAssists: Brett Pesce, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P2 0:06CARJordan MartinookGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG0–2
- P2 2:19CARAndrei SvechnikovAssists: Clark Bishop · Snap, 0.09 xG0–3
- P3 2:38PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Scott Laughton · Snap, 0.14 xG1–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 18:04CARAndrei Svechnikov: Hooking2 min
- P2 6:38CARJanne Kuokkanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:27PHIWayne Simmonds: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:26PHIClaude Giroux: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Rask
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – Couturier – Konecny3:22
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Voracek – Couturier – Raffl8:06
xG 0.28–0.23 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Simmonds – Weal – Laughton7:40
xG 0.27–0.38 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Weal – Raffl4:41
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Gudas11:59
xG 0.57–0.35 (62%)attempts 11–10goals 1–2
- Gostisbehere – Hagg12:25
xG 0.49–0.59 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Sanheim – Provorov19:00
xG 0.51–0.81 (38%)attempts 20–20goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestFerland – Rask – Svechnikov12:04
xG 0.58–0.25 (70%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Foegele – Aho3:00
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Williams – Martinook – Wallmark13:36
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Teravainen – McGinn – Aho10:17
xG 0.52–0.47 (52%)attempts 12–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamilton – van Riemsdyk15:16
xG 0.84–0.41 (67%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Slavin – Pesce16:05
xG 0.78–0.36 (69%)attempts 18–15goals 2–0
- de Haan – Faulk17:22
xG 0.49–0.76 (39%)attempts 16–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).