Mon, Dec 31, 2018·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Ottawa Senators 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 05 | 113 | 27 | 325 |
| CBJ | 07 | 114 | 517 | 638 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:15OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Chris Tierney, Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–0
- P2 9:36CBJZach WerenskiAssists: Artemi Panarin, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P3 3:59CBJPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Cam Atkinson, Seth Jones · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 11:15CBJPierre-Luc DuboisUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 11:36OTTBobby RyanAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Mikkel Boedker · Deflected, 0.11 xG2–3
- P3 13:34OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Matt Duchene, Dylan DeMelo · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 17:59CBJZach WerenskiGWGAssists: Cam Atkinson, Pierre-Luc Dubois · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 19:00CBJCam AtkinsonENAssists: Artemi Panarin, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.77 xG3–5
- P3 19:34CBJJosh AndersonENUnassisted · Slap, 0.44 xG3–6
Penalties (9)
- P2 6:10OTTMark Borowiecki: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:10CBJJosh Anderson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:10CBJJosh Anderson: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:32CBJMarkus Hannikainen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 15:53OTTBen Harpur: Holding2 min
- P2 17:08CBJArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:14OTTMark Borowiecki: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:19CBJLukas Sedlak: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:19OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Dubois
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestStone – Tierney – Tkachuk13:08
xG 0.85–0.60 (59%)attempts 13–16goals 0–0
- Ryan – Smith – Boedker2:25
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Smith – Dzingel – Rodewald5:03
xG 0.50–0.39 (56%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Duchene – Dzingel – White3:12
xG 0.13–0.08 (61%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHarpur – Wolanin4:11
xG 0.18–0.07 (70%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – DeMelo9:42
xG 0.44–0.45 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
- DeMelo – Harpur3:19
xG 0.21–0.23 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois15:06
xG 1.53–0.62 (71%)attempts 22–11goals 4–0
- Dubinsky – Nash – Sedlak6:51
xG 0.28–0.17 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Anderson – Duclair – Wennberg10:45
xG 0.37–0.49 (43%)attempts 9–9goals 0–1
- Jenner – Bjorkstrand – Hannikainen7:16
xG 0.45–0.63 (42%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSavard – Harrington13:49
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 15–10goals 1–1
- Jones – Werenski16:05
xG 1.23–0.91 (57%)attempts 23–13goals 2–1
- Murray – Nutivaara13:42
xG 0.65–0.52 (56%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).