Mon, Dec 31, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Florida Panthers 4, Detroit Red Wings 3 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 08 | 314 | 03 | 02 | 1 | 427 |
| DET | 38 | 02 | 07 | 03 | 0 | 320 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:15DETAndreas AthanasiouAssists: Luke Witkowski, Niklas Kronwall · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–1
- P1 17:28DETGustav NyquistAssists: Dylan Larkin, Justin Abdelkader · Backhand, 0.09 xG0–2
- P1 18:27DETThomas VanekAssists: Frans Nielsen, Tyler Bertuzzi · Wrist, 0.05 xG0–3
- P2 6:19FLAJared McCannSHAssists: Juho Lammikko, Mark Pysyk · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–3
- P2 12:11FLAHenrik BorgstromAssists: Frank Vatrano, Aaron Ekblad · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–3
- P2 15:15FLAJayce HawrylukAssists: Colton Sceviour · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. DET Gustav Nyquist stopped
- 2. FLA Jonathan Huberdeau scored
- 3. DET Frans Nielsen stopped
- 4. FLA Aleksander Barkov stopped
- 5. DET Dylan Larkin stopped
Penalties (5)
- P1 6:57DETNiklas Kronwall: Interference2 min
- P2 2:53DETMichael Rasmussen: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 5:29FLADenis Malgin: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:23FLAJayce Hawryluk: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 6:45DETThomas Vanek: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Barkov won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestSceviour – Hawryluk – Lammikko4:24
xG 0.20–0.10 (68%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Brouwer – McCann – Malgin10:25
xG 0.35–0.33 (52%)attempts 14–6goals 0–1
- Dadonov – Vatrano – Borgstrom5:43
xG 0.16–0.13 (54%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Hoffman – Vatrano – Borgstrom4:26
xG 0.09–0.17 (35%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeegar – Kiselevich10:12
xG 0.50–0.44 (53%)attempts 15–7goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Matheson15:31
xG 0.31–0.36 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Yandle – Ekblad21:12
xG 0.33–0.82 (28%)attempts 9–15goals 1–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Abdelkader – Nyquist – Larkin15:23
xG 0.49–0.47 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Vanek – Bertuzzi10:17
xG 0.26–0.31 (45%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
- Glendening – Athanasiou – Rasmussen7:26
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
- Frk – de la Rose – Ehn3:11
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Hronek4:59
xG 0.32–0.13 (71%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Hronek12:58
xG 0.40–0.27 (59%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Ericsson – Jensen3:15
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).