Mon, Dec 31, 2018·Pepsi Center, Denver
Los Angeles Kings 3, Colorado Avalanche 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 25 | 04 | 11 | 318 |
| COL | 09 | 07 | 28 | 00 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:22LAKDrew DoughtyPPAssists: Jeff Carter, Jonathan Quick · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P2 12:58LAKSean WalkerAssists: Anze Kopitar, Dustin Brown · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG2–0
- P3 0:32COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–1
- P3 18:10COLCarl SoderbergAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Tip-in, 0.12 xG2–2
- OT 0:54LAKDustin BrownGWGAssists: Jake Muzzin, Tyler Toffoli · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:52LAKKyle Clifford: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 19:56COLTyson Barrie: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 1:34LAKTyler Toffoli: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:02LAKJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:15COLCarl Soderberg: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 0:57COLJ.T. Compher: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestBrown – Kopitar – Iafallo13:01
xG 0.52–0.34 (60%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
- Leipsic – Kempe – Luff7:00
xG 0.09–0.07 (57%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Leipsic – Kempe2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner4:42
xG 0.02–0.10 (19%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Muzzin – Walker13:18
xG 0.36–0.35 (51%)attempts 10–17goals 1–0
- Phaneuf – Fantenberg6:11
xG 0.07–0.08 (46%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Walker2:03
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen11:07
xG 0.63–0.11 (85%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Landeskog – Kerfoot – Compher5:13
xG 0.26–0.12 (68%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Bourque – Dries – O'Connor3:51
xG 0.14–0.04 (77%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto6:41
xG 0.15–0.07 (69%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Barrie7:33
xG 0.51–0.04 (93%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Nemeth – Graves6:00
xG 0.31–0.03 (91%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Barrie – Girard5:32
xG 0.33–0.05 (88%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).