Mon, Dec 31, 2018·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Montréal Canadiens 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 116 | 010 | 111 | 11 | 338 |
| DAL | 011 | 224 | 012 | 00 | 247 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:35MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Brett Kulak, Jordie Benn · Snap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 3:02DALRadek FaksaAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 16:34DALJamie BennPPAssists: Tyler Seguin, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.51 xG1–2
- P3 9:17MTLPhillip DanaultAssists: Shea Weber, Tomas Tatar · Snap, 0.20 xG2–2
- OT 0:14MTLJeff PetryGWGAssists: Paul Byron, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:28DALConnor Carrick: Holding the stick2 min
- P2 8:22MTLJeff Petry: Hooking2 min
- P2 9:57DALJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:38MTLJordie Benn: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hintz won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestTatar – Gallagher – Danault9:03
xG 1.07–0.46 (70%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Agostino – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi2:17
xG 0.38–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino8:51
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi3:15
xG 0.48–0.39 (55%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestWeber – Mete16:41
xG 1.09–0.48 (69%)attempts 22–21goals 1–0
- Petry – Benn2:11
xG 0.13–0.02 (88%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Benn – Kulak12:35
xG 0.26–0.30 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestComeau – Faksa – Nichushkin12:30
xG 0.93–0.18 (83%)attempts 17–7goals 1–0
- Radulov – Janmark – Hintz8:04
xG 0.68–0.59 (53%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Benn – Seguin – Gurianov3:42
xG 0.04–0.05 (48%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Shore5:45
xG 0.14–0.24 (37%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Heiskanen9:05
xG 0.78–0.13 (86%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Polak – Lindell6:04
xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Klingberg – Honka3:37
xG 0.16–0.28 (37%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).