Mon, Dec 31, 2018·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Winnipeg Jets 4, Edmonton Oilers 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 09 | 317 | 110 | 436 |
| EDM | 17 | 19 | 18 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:50EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Connor McDavid, Alexander Petrovic · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 4:39WPGBrandon TanevAssists: Jacob Trouba, Josh Morrissey · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 6:02WPGBrendan LemieuxAssists: Andrew Copp, Jack Roslovic · Tip-in, 0.30 xG2–1
- P2 18:03EDMLeon DraisaitlPPAssists: Darnell Nurse, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P2 18:32WPGBlake WheelerUnassisted · Snap, 0.06 xG3–2
- P3 7:23EDMLeon DraisaitlAssists: Connor McDavid · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–3
- P3 14:02WPGBrendan LemieuxGWGAssists: Joe Morrow, Andrew Copp · Deflected, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 9:08EDMTobias Rieder: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:25WPGBrendan Lemieux: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 1:52EDMAdam Larsson: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against McDavid
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestCopp – Lemieux – Roslovic6:17
xG 0.83–0.17 (83%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Wheeler – Scheifele – Ehlers14:20
xG 0.76–0.38 (67%)attempts 14–8goals 1–1
- Perreault – Lowry – Tanev10:52
xG 0.27–0.49 (36%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
- Little – Connor – Laine11:42
xG 0.07–0.89 (7%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKulikov – Morrow11:40
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 17–6goals 1–0
- Trouba – Morrissey19:09
xG 0.64–1.11 (36%)attempts 15–16goals 1–2
- Myers – Chiarot18:19
xG 0.41–0.91 (31%)attempts 16–25goals 1–0
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestSpooner – Rieder – Draisaitl8:10
xG 0.78–0.21 (79%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Rattie – Khaira – McDavid7:37
xG 0.29–0.12 (71%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Rattie – Draisaitl – McDavid4:26
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Lucic – Nugent-Hopkins – Puljujarvi9:36
xG 0.29–0.49 (37%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Jones17:39
xG 0.97–0.56 (64%)attempts 21–15goals 1–1
- Manning – Benning11:39
xG 0.79–0.43 (65%)attempts 16–17goals 1–2
- Petrovic – Nurse17:59
xG 0.28–1.28 (18%)attempts 6–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Winnipeg Jets win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).