Tue, Jan 1, 2019·Notre Dame Stadium, Notre DameOutdoor game
Boston Bruins 4, Chicago Blackhawks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 114 | 110 | 212 | 436 |
| CHI | 112 | 116 | 010 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30CHIBrendan PerliniAssists: David Kampf, Dylan Sikura · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 12:38BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–1
- P2 11:24CHIDominik KahunAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:48BOSPatrice BergeronPPAssists: David Pastrnak, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 10:20BOSSean KuralyGWGAssists: Chris Wagner, Matt Grzelcyk · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 19:27BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Krejci · Wrist, 0.75 xG4–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 5:52BOSBrandon Carlo: Holding2 min
- P1 12:05CHIArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 17:03BOSMatt Grzelcyk: High sticking2 min
- P2 2:23BOSSean Kuraly: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:57CHIErik Gustafsson: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 19:50BOSMatt Grzelcyk: Hooking2 min
- P3 1:03CHIPatrick Kane: High sticking2 min
- P3 1:42CHIArtem Anisimov: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:56CHIGustav Forsling: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKrejci – Forsbacka Karlsson – DeBrusk7:53
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
- Wagner – Nordstrom – Kuraly3:39
xG 0.46–0.13 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Krejci – Pastrnak – DeBrusk2:55
xG 0.14–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Wagner – Kuraly – Heinen7:19
xG 0.04–0.38 (10%)attempts 2–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMiller – Grzelcyk14:05
xG 0.84–0.55 (61%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Grzelcyk – Carlo2:00
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Moore – Krug6:08
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestSikura – DeBrincat – Kampf8:50
xG 0.31–0.14 (69%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Toews – Saad – Kahun10:05
xG 0.46–0.37 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kruger – Perlini – Martinsen3:40
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Anisimov – Kane – Strome13:23
xG 0.59–1.03 (36%)attempts 15–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGustafsson – Forsling3:58
xG 0.49–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Murphy – Dahlstrom11:36
xG 0.66–0.29 (69%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook2:40
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CHI is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CHI − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).