Tue, Jan 1, 2019·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Los Angeles Kings 0, Vegas Golden Knights 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 97% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 08 | 04 | 05 | 017 |
| VGK | 09 | 018 | 221 | 248 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 3:43VGKBrandon PirriGWGAssists: Cody Eakin, Ryan Reaves · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P3 19:27VGKAlex TuchENAssists: Deryk Engelland, Brandon Pirri · Wrist, 0.63 xG0–2
Penalties (5)
- P2 0:57VGKPaul Stastny: Interference2 min
- P2 13:46LAKAdrian Kempe: Interference2 min
- P2 16:32VGKNick Holden: Holding2 min
- P3 1:43LAKDerek Forbort: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:17LAKDrew Doughty: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Karlsson won the faceoff against Kopitar
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- Brown – Kopitar – Iafallo11:56
xG 0.37–0.42 (47%)attempts 10–9goals 0–0
- Thompson – Clifford – Wagner5:48
xG 0.07–0.32 (18%)attempts 3–11goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Carter – Toffoli9:39
xG 0.32–0.82 (28%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Leipsic – Kempe – Luff6:33
xG 0.00–0.65 (0%)attempts 1–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Phaneuf – Doughty2:02
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Fantenberg11:51
xG 0.19–0.61 (24%)attempts 8–19goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Walker14:57
xG 0.36–1.10 (25%)attempts 8–25goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault11:22
xG 0.92–0.19 (83%)attempts 18–8goals 0–0
- Reaves – Carrier – Bellemare4:50
xG 0.47–0.06 (89%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Nosek8:56
xG 0.56–0.23 (71%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Stastny – Pirri – Tuch9:17
xG 0.34–0.13 (72%)attempts 13–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore13:58
xG 1.41–0.25 (85%)attempts 28–8goals 0–0
- Holden – Merrill15:22
xG 1.03–0.03 (97%)attempts 25–5goals 0–0
- McNabb – Schmidt15:08
xG 0.43–0.40 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 97% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).