Wed, Jan 2, 2019·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Vancouver Canucks 4, Ottawa Senators 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 017 | 213 | 114 | 11 | 445 |
| OTT | 05 | 112 | 215 | 01 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:48VANSven BaertschiPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Bo Horvat · Wrist, 0.51 xG1–0
- P2 12:27OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Mark Stone · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–1
- P2 15:26VANElias PetterssonAssists: Brock Boeser, Alexander Edler · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–1
- P3 5:00VANElias PetterssonPPAssists: Alexander Edler, Sven Baertschi · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 10:51OTTChristian WolaninAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Mikkel Boedker · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–2
- P3 19:10OTTMark StoneAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–3
- OT 1:38VANElias PetterssonGWGAssists: Chris Tanev, Brock Boeser · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:25OTTMark Borowiecki: High sticking2 min
- P1 11:40OTTBen Harpur: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:40VANTim Schaller: Fighting5 min
- P1 19:42OTTMark Stone: Interference2 min
- P2 6:53OTTRyan Dzingel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:09VANTyler Motte: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 3:04OTTBen Harpur: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 9:54OTTDylan DeMelo: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:42VANBen Hutton: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:38VANChris Tanev: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestBaertschi – Boeser – Pettersson6:21
xG 0.63–0.03 (96%)attempts 15–2goals 1–0
- Eriksson – Roussel – Horvat10:27
xG 0.74–0.20 (79%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
- Granlund – Baertschi – Virtanen3:08
xG 0.34–0.01 (98%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte10:00
xG 0.34–0.44 (44%)attempts 10–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPouliot – Stecher13:40
xG 0.96–0.39 (71%)attempts 22–10goals 0–0
- Gudbranson – Hutton12:04
xG 0.94–0.43 (69%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev14:31
xG 0.86–0.42 (67%)attempts 22–10goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- Stone – White – Tkachuk5:20
xG 0.40–0.36 (53%)attempts 9–7goals 0–1
- Ryan – Smith – Boedker3:11
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Duchene – Dzingel6:17
xG 0.30–0.43 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Smith – Boedker – Tierney2:34
xG 0.15–0.49 (24%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Elliott – Lajoie2:04
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Elliott – Harpur4:15
xG 0.24–0.29 (46%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Ceci – Wolanin5:05
xG 0.20–0.40 (33%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).