Wed, Jan 2, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
New Jersey Devils 4, Dallas Stars 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 12 | 312 | 020 | 434 |
| DAL | 116 | 314 | 110 | 540 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41NJDKyle PalmieriAssists: Andy Greene, Travis Zajac · Deflected, 0.17 xG1–0
- P1 12:31DALJamie BennAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 3:21DALMiro HeiskanenAssists: Tyler Pitlick, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–2
- P2 6:38DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Alexander Radulov, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P2 11:08NJDJesper BrattAssists: Nico Hischier · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
- P2 12:24DALTyler SeguinAssists: Alexander Radulov, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P2 17:21NJDDrew StaffordAssists: Brett Seney, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–4
- P2 18:48NJDBrian BoylePPAssists: Will Butcher, Travis Zajac · Deflected, 0.07 xG4–4
- P3 6:27DALMiro HeiskanenGWGAssists: Roope Hintz · Backhand, 0.12 xG4–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:21DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P1 8:33NJDBrett Seney: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:05NJDMiles Wood: Interference5 min · PPG
- P2 2:05DALEsa Lindell: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:05NJDStefan Noesen: Roughing2 min
- P2 2:05DALJohn Klingberg: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:09DALMiro Heiskanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 2:58DALRoman Polak: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:24DALAlexander Radulov: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zajac won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestPalmieri – Bratt – Hischier9:10
xG 0.49–0.07 (87%)attempts 8–3goals 1–0
- Boyle – Stafford – Seney4:49
xG 0.24–0.00 (99%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
- Zajac – Coleman – Wood5:11
xG 0.23–0.24 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Noesen – Quenneville – Zacha2:55
xG 0.03–0.13 (18%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVatanen – Santini10:17
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 3–12goals 1–0
- Lovejoy – Severson2:49
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Lovejoy – Butcher6:14
xG 0.17–0.16 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin4:18
xG 1.29–0.14 (90%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0
- Comeau – Pitlick – Faksa9:19
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Radulov – Seguin – Nichushkin5:11
xG 0.24–0.13 (64%)attempts 4–7goals 1–0
- Nichushkin – Hintz – Gurianov2:32
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Heiskanen4:37
xG 0.86–0.11 (88%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Polak – Heiskanen9:15
xG 0.53–0.26 (68%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1
- Klingberg – Honka3:26
xG 0.43–0.17 (72%)attempts 6–1goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).