Thu, Jan 3, 2019·TD Garden, Boston
Calgary Flames 4, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 111 | 110 | 216 | 437 |
| BOS | 29 | 111 | 37 | 627 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:46CGYMichael FrolikSHAssists: Mark Jankowski · Backhand, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 9:02BOSJohn MoorePPAssists: Matt Grzelcyk, Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 14:19BOSJake DeBruskAssists: David Krejci, Ryan Donato · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 1:05CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–2
- P2 1:41BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Torey Krug, Patrice Bergeron · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–3
- P3 0:54BOSDavid PastrnakPPAssists: Torey Krug, Jaroslav Halak · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–4
- P3 9:27CGYJohnny GaudreauAssists: Sean Monahan, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–4
- P3 13:46BOSJake DeBruskGWGAssists: David Krejci · Backhand, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 16:27CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Mark Giordano, Rasmus Andersson · Backhand, 0.08 xG4–5
- P3 18:10BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: David Pastrnak, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.72 xG4–6
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:39CGYMichael Frolik: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:44CGYElias Lindholm: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 7:09BOSZdeno Chara: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:13BOSJake DeBrusk: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:31BOSDanton Heinen: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 18:39BOSBrad Marchand: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:53CGYElias Lindholm: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Lindholm – Monahan11:34
xG 1.16–0.31 (79%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Frolik – Backlund – Tkachuk7:56
xG 0.87–0.10 (89%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Neal – Jankowski – Tkachuk2:54
xG 0.30–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Hathaway – Czarnik – Ryan7:25
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamonic – Hanifin15:07
xG 1.79–0.13 (93%)attempts 23–7goals 2–1
- Giordano – Brodie14:40
xG 1.03–0.38 (73%)attempts 21–5goals 0–0
- Hamonic – Brodie2:16
xG 0.10–0.03 (77%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- Krejci – Donato – DeBrusk9:02
xG 0.19–0.18 (51%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Cave – Heinen – Forsbacka Karlsson3:57
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Heinen – DeBrusk2:11
xG 0.07–0.27 (20%)attempts 4–4goals 1–1
- Bergeron – Marchand – Pastrnak13:56
xG 0.33–1.18 (22%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Carlo9:13
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Moore – Miller2:25
xG 0.16–0.04 (79%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Miller – Krug3:40
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).