Thu, Jan 3, 2019·NYCB Live/Nassau Coliseum, Uniondale
Chicago Blackhawks 2, New York Islanders 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 13 | 013 | 13 | 02 | 221 |
| NYI | 114 | 116 | 018 | 12 | 350 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:05CHIDominik KahunAssists: Brandon Saad, Duncan Keith · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–0
- P1 6:47NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Anthony Beauvillier, Johnny Boychuk · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 18:56NYIMathew BarzalPPAssists: Nick Leddy, Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 5:01CHIPatrick KanePPAssists: Erik Gustafsson, Jonathan Toews · Snap, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 1:48NYIDevon ToewsGWGAssists: Josh Bailey, Brock Nelson · Wrist, 0.29 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 11:36NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:35CHIGustav Forsling: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 4:23NYIBrock Nelson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:49CHIDuncan Keith: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Toews won the faceoff against Cizikas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – Saad – Kahun13:24
xG 0.85–0.35 (71%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Kruger – Hayden – Perlini5:43
xG 0.08–0.27 (23%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
- Kane – DeBrincat – Kampf3:31
xG 0.00–0.36 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Sikura – DeBrincat – Kampf9:02
xG 0.10–0.96 (10%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Seabrook10:53
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Forsling3:47
xG 0.02–0.20 (7%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Keith – Gustafsson6:50
xG 0.38–0.99 (28%)attempts 4–9goals 1–1
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Barzal – Beauvillier14:41
xG 1.41–0.40 (78%)attempts 21–7goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas10:31
xG 0.90–0.55 (62%)attempts 13–9goals 0–1
- Lee – Nelson – Ho-Sang13:43
xG 0.80–0.48 (63%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kuhnhackl – Dal Colle7:10
xG 0.38–0.21 (64%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock17:26
xG 1.58–0.58 (73%)attempts 25–10goals 0–0
- Boychuk – Leddy17:42
xG 1.13–0.45 (71%)attempts 21–13goals 1–0
- Mayfield – Toews14:23
xG 1.18–0.56 (68%)attempts 15–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).