Thu, Jan 3, 2019·Centre Bell, Montreal
Vancouver Canucks 0, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VAN | 05 | 017 | 011 | 033 |
| MTL | 110 | 19 | 08 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:50MTLJordie BennGWGAssists: Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Joel Armia · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P2 8:24MTLJonathan DrouinAssists: Max Domi · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 6:03MTLTomas Tatar: Hooking2 min
- P1 13:46VANTim Schaller: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:10MTLPhillip Danault: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:48VANSven Baertschi: Interference2 min
- P3 5:51MTLMax Domi: Cross checking2 min
- P3 8:40VANMarkus Granlund: Interference2 min
- P3 12:44MTLMichael Chaput: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:08MTLJonathan Drouin: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Chaput won the faceoff against Horvat
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSutter – Baertschi – Virtanen2:17
xG 0.12–0.00 (98%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Sutter – Granlund – Virtanen5:56
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Beagle – Schaller – Motte6:04
xG 0.09–0.03 (77%)attempts 9–2goals 0–0
- Baertschi – Boeser – Pettersson4:23
xG 0.19–0.29 (40%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDel Zotto – Stecher10:00
xG 0.46–0.33 (58%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Edler – Tanev11:37
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Gudbranson – Hutton16:10
xG 0.40–1.47 (21%)attempts 15–25goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Drouin – Domi7:13
xG 0.67–0.18 (79%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Tatar – Gallagher – Danault8:29
xG 0.57–0.26 (69%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Armia – Lehkonen – Kotkaniemi7:54
xG 0.57–0.40 (59%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Chaput – Agostino7:29
xG 0.20–0.08 (71%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Reilly14:18
xG 0.84–0.22 (80%)attempts 23–8goals 1–0
- Weber – Mete13:48
xG 0.69–0.26 (73%)attempts 13–11goals 0–0
- Benn – Kulak10:09
xG 0.46–0.57 (45%)attempts 5–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it VAN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − VAN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).