Thu, Jan 3, 2019·Enterprise Center, St. Louis
Washington Capitals 2, St. Louis Blues 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 113 | 110 | 02 | 225 |
| STL | 19 | 219 | 214 | 542 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:00STLRobert ThomasAssists: Robert Bortuzzo, Jaden Schwartz · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 15:34WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Michal Kempny, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 3:00WSHBrett ConnollyAssists: Lars Eller, Michal Kempny · Wrist, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 12:23STLColton ParaykoPPAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, David Perron · Snap, 0.08 xG2–2
- P2 16:33STLOskar SundqvistGWGAssists: Ivan Barbashev, Alex Pietrangelo · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–3
- P3 5:44STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: David Perron, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.05 xG2–4
- P3 11:08STLTyler BozakUnassisted · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–5
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:46STLBrayden Schenn: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:49WSHBrooks Orpik: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 16:47STLAlex Pietrangelo: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:13WSHTom Wilson: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:13STLRobert Bortuzzo: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:29STLDavid Perron: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:48STLAlex Pietrangelo: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:48WSHTom Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:37WSHMatt Niskanen: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 11:59WSHMichal Kempny: Holding2 min
- P2 11:59STLPatrick Maroon: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:19WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Schenn
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky9:38
xG 0.60–0.54 (52%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
- Dowd – Jaskin – Stephenson8:37
xG 0.25–0.27 (48%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana8:52
xG 0.24–0.33 (42%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:06
xG 0.35–0.86 (29%)attempts 6–19goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestCarlson – Kempny12:42
xG 0.59–0.51 (54%)attempts 9–10goals 2–0
- Niskanen – Kempny2:15
xG 0.05–0.02 (65%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Orpik – Niskanen2:47
xG 0.27–0.26 (51%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSchenn – Schwartz – Thomas10:09
xG 0.51–0.15 (77%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Bozak – Sundqvist – Barbashev3:43
xG 0.31–0.01 (96%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Steen – Perron – O'Reilly11:10
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 1–0
- Schwartz – Sundqvist – Barbashev2:16
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBouwmeester – Pietrangelo2:27
xG 0.24–0.10 (72%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Bortuzzo5:25
xG 0.27–0.13 (67%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Gunnarsson – Pietrangelo6:35
xG 0.56–0.43 (57%)attempts 10–6goals 3–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).