Fri, Jan 4, 2019·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Washington Capitals 1, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 05 | 115 | 014 | 03 | 137 |
| DAL | 115 | 08 | 02 | 14 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:20DALTyler SeguinPPAssists: Radek Faksa, Alexander Radulov · Wrist, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 10:19WSHLars EllerAssists: Andre Burakovsky, Brooks Orpik · Backhand, 0.01 xG1–1
- OT 3:37DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Alexander Radulov, Roope Hintz · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:28WSHMatt Niskanen: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:46WSHAlex Ovechkin: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 4:31DALRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P2 11:39DALAlexander Radulov: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:39WSHMichal Kempny: Embellishment2 min
- P2 16:09WSHLars Eller: High sticking2 min
- P3 9:34DALErik Condra: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:35DALBrett Ritchie: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Faksa won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestEller – Connolly – Burakovsky12:24
xG 0.64–0.31 (67%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana9:29
xG 0.49–0.26 (65%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:50
xG 0.26–0.30 (46%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Smith-Pelly – Boyd – Stephenson5:48
xG 0.03–0.18 (13%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Siegenthaler7:22
xG 0.41–0.03 (93%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Carlson – Kempny14:36
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 18–11goals 0–0
- Niskanen – Orlov16:56
xG 0.48–0.60 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestSpezza – Ritchie – Shore2:38
xG 0.23–0.03 (89%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Condra – Shore – Hintz3:40
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Radulov – Seguin – Janmark2:04
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Ritchie – Janmark3:39
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlingberg – Lindell2:12
xG 0.12–0.01 (93%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Fedun – Honka8:24
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Polak – Heiskanen2:22
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 69% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).