Fri, Jan 4, 2019·Pepsi Center, Denver
New York Rangers 1, Colorado Avalanche 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 03 | 07 | 115 | 125 |
| COL | 216 | 117 | 314 | 647 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:40COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:53COLMikko RantanenPPGWGAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Tyson Barrie · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–2
- P2 12:34COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Erik Johnson, Mikko Rantanen · Deflected, 0.12 xG0–3
- P3 5:18COLAlexander KerfootAssists: J.T. Compher, Tyson Jost · Deflected, 0.02 xG0–4
- P3 7:53COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Nathan MacKinnon · Deflected, 0.11 xG0–5
- P3 9:21NYRRyan StromeSHUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
- P3 13:28COLRyan GravesUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–6
Penalties (16)
- P1 2:29NYRCody McLeod: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 9:55COLAlexander Kerfoot: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:46NYRPavel Buchnevich: Holding2 min
- P1 16:02NYRBrady Skjei: Tripping2 min
- P1 17:20COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P1 17:20NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:03NYRChris Kreider: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 3:41COLErik Johnson: Holding2 min
- P2 3:59NYRChris Kreider: Boarding2 min
- P2 5:11NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:39NYRMarc Staal: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:58COLMikko Rantanen: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:00NYRMats Zuccarello: Misconduct10 min
- P2 0:00COLPatrik Nemeth: Misconduct10 min
- P3 6:49NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:14COLRyan Graves: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Zibanejad won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- McLeod – Strome – Nieves3:46
xG 0.03–0.20 (12%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Vesey – Buchnevich – Howden7:02
xG 0.14–0.33 (30%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Kreider – Fast – Zibanejad5:06
xG 0.31–0.54 (37%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
- Zuccarello – Namestnikov – Chytil4:32
xG 0.04–0.29 (12%)attempts 3–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestShattenkirk – Claesson12:11
xG 0.83–0.48 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
- Shattenkirk – Skjei2:22
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- McQuaid – Skjei12:44
xG 0.22–0.58 (28%)attempts 9–19goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen5:44
xG 0.67–0.13 (83%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Compher – Jost8:15
xG 0.59–0.20 (74%)attempts 11–10goals 2–0
- Soderberg – Calvert – Nieto6:50
xG 0.35–0.13 (72%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Andrighetto – Dries – O'Connor6:55
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Graves2:20
xG 0.46–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Nemeth – Graves3:12
xG 0.25–0.04 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Johnson – Cole3:02
xG 0.17–0.00 (99%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).